5 downtown ‘hoods with the highest growth

Last year was a killer market in Toronto, especially for condos. The price of the average TO condo went up by 5.8% year-over-year, with one neighbourhood (Yorkville) jumping up nearly 14%. Average price per square foot went up by 7%, with the highest growth area (Moss Park) topping out at 10.5%.

Two ways to look at growth: average price vs. average price per square foot

When we talk about growth, we like to look at it from two angles. The first – growth in average overall price – is based on how much units sold for, but it doesn’t take their size or location in the building into account. These are general numbers that can be a useful guidepost when you’re starting your search, but they don’t tell the whole story. Average price doesn’t factor in the size of the unit or how many bedrooms it has, so it’s not really comparing apples to apples.

For example, if more studios in a specific building or neighbourhood sold one year, then a bunch of two-bedroom units went on the market the next, looking at average price would make you think the value jumped dramatically, when that may not actually be the case. By comparing the price per square foot, on the other hand, you can get a very different picture, because you’re looking at the true value of the space, and it gives you a good sense of what you can get for your money.

The skinny on 2019 growth

Condo sales continue to show growth no matter how we slice the data, and last year, most neighbourhoods in the core saw positive growth. But if you bought in some of the areas listed below, you’re probably feeling extra good about your choice.

Greatest increase in average price*

1. Yorkville - up 13.77%

2. Kensington Market - up 12.95%

3. Annex/U of T - up 12.44%

4. CityPlace - up 12.07%

5. Queen West - up 11.23%

Greatest increase in price per sf*

1. Moss Park - up 10.51%

2. Church Street Corridor - up 10.43%

3. Waterfront - up 9.69%

4. Downtown core - up 9.3%

5. CityPlace - up 8.6%

Of course, that’s not to say neighbourhoods that aren’t on these top 5 lists did badly. Averages went up across the board. But if the numbers look flat for a certain area, it could be because there were no listings - or for any number of other reasons. But understanding demand based on “invisible” stats is almost impossible if you don’t have “on the ground” knowledge - that’s why you need a realtor who’s a neighbourhood and building pro and really has a finger on the pulse of the area.

Trendspotting and data

Interested in diving deeper into trends? You’ll need to look at more year-over-year data. We have average prices by year and by neighbourhood posted on condos.ca if you want to calculate growth numbers. But remember, there are more than 80 neighbourhoods in the City of Toronto, so before jumping, you’ll probably want to pare down your list.

The best way to get good info is to talk to a Condo Pro. They can help you wrap your head around growth rates and trends and understand what the future of that area might look like. They know what’s growing, what’s hot and what’s not-so-hot, and why. Most importantly, they know what’s going on in terms of development: what’s being built, if there are parks and green spaces, what the traffic patterns are like and what the transportation options are (or will be in the future).

If you really want to understand the potential growth of an area, look at infrastructure and development like future TTC lines. Buildings close to the rapidly redeveloping waterfront. Neighbourhoods where companies like Google are setting up shop. Or talk to your Condo Pro - they’ve already done the research.